A 1,602-person mountain town at the gateway to Mt. Shasta. This dashboard maps four lenses on the local economy: government health, the lived experience of locals, the three streams of economic activity, and a strategic SWOT.
Net change = revenue minus expenses. The adopted FY 25-27 budget was finalized August 2025, before Measure D passed in November 2025. The blue line shows the budget's worst-case projection, which assumed the existing 0.5% T&U tax would expire in March 2026 with no replacement. The amber line shows the realistic trajectory now that Measure D is approved, generating ~$270k/yr in additional GF revenue. The amber line stays comfortably above the 20% reserve target.
target met
below target
insolvent
below target
Measure A passed Nov 2024 (TOT raised to 12%). Measure D passed Nov 2025 (1% sales tax replacing expiring 0.5%, ~$270k/yr). Two tax measures approved in 13 months — voters are saying they will fund their own revitalization.
Median age 47.9 — about 10 yrs older than CA
93 → 65 students. Investigate this.
Trucks dominate I-5 traffic in this corridor (it's the primary CA goods-movement route). Pass-through capture happens at gas, food, restrooms, and quick attractions. Hedge Creek Falls is the one I-5-adjacent attraction — trail starts at Exit 729. Mossbrae Falls trail closed. Capture rate per pass-through is roughly 3¢ in city sales tax.
TOT is the city's #2 General Fund revenue source after property tax. Combined effective rate 14% (12% city + 2% county). Two-day stays are the modal pattern — converting these to 3+ day stays is the single biggest economic lever Dunsmuir has.
Reading: Visitation in thousands/yr (700 = 700,000). Sentiment converts review aggregates to 0–100 scale. Asterisks (*) mark estimates — National parks, state parks have official counts (solid). Hedge Creek, Botanical Gardens, Mossbrae trail, Castle Lake, Lake Shastina visitor counts are estimates only.
Crater Lake (700k) and Lassen (400k) are huge but far — they're itinerary anchors, and Dunsmuir's job is to be the comfortable overnight stop on the way. Burney Falls (250k, 96% sentiment) and Mt. Shasta City (250k, 92%) are the close-in big draws. Castle Crags is criminally underutilized given proximity — 6 miles, 92% sentiment, only 75k visitors. Local Dunsmuir attractions score very well on sentiment but visitation is unmeasured — installing trail counters at Hedge Creek and Mossbrae would be the cheapest, highest-value diagnostic Dunsmuir can do.
Three economic streams, three different playbooks. Highway pass-through is a volume game — millions of vehicles, a few cents each. Overnight tourism is a yield game — 69k visitors at high HHI, 9% capture, big upside in length-of-stay conversion. Other industries are a base-load game — government, healthcare commute, retiree income, and the lifestyle-migration thesis for remote workers. The fastest fiscal payoff comes from overnight tourism (TOT is GF revenue #2). The most durable demographic fix comes from importing remote workers and young families. Pass-through is the "free option" — already happening, just needs better conversion at the I-5 exits.
Four theories of change, each running bottom-to-top through four tiers. Each colored chain is one strategic story — adjust the input at the bottom and the lead, lag, and result above will respond. Chains are independent; tweaking blue does not affect green, purple, or red. The model uses illustrative coefficients drawn from Kosmont 2024 and tourism economics. It's a thinking tool, not a forecast.