Economic baseline · Siskiyou County · I-5 corridor

Dunsmuir, California

A 1,602-person mountain town at the gateway to Mt. Shasta. This dashboard maps four lenses on the local economy: government health, the lived experience of locals, the three streams of economic activity, and a strategic SWOT.

v6 · May 2026
Population 1,602
Median age 47.9
Pop change −1.23%/yr
All sections collapsed by default tap the orange circles to expand
Overnight visitors 69k $13–15M captured
I-5 traffic ~20k vehicles/day AADT
Median home price $268k 31% of CA — affordable
Population 1,602 1.23%/yr
18–24 cohort 6.6% vs ~10% expected
Net job flow 364 commute out daily
01

Government health

General fund — revenue, expenses, fund balance

FY23-FY27 · audited + budgeted
Revenue + Measure D revenue Expenses Fund balance — adopted (right) Fund balance — w/ Measure D 20% target ($520k)
FY22-23 actual
$150k
net surplus · balance $514k
FY23-24 actual
$436k
net surplus · balance $950k
FY24-25 budget
flat
break-even · balance ~$950k
FY25-26 budget
$231k
deficit (adopted) · balance $719k
$186k w/ Measure D
FY26-27 budget
$283k
deficit (adopted) · balance $437k
$13k w/ Measure D

Net change = revenue minus expenses. The adopted FY 25-27 budget was finalized August 2025, before Measure D passed in November 2025. The blue line shows the budget's worst-case projection, which assumed the existing 0.5% T&U tax would expire in March 2026 with no replacement. The amber line shows the realistic trajectory now that Measure D is approved, generating ~$270k/yr in additional GF revenue. The amber line stays comfortably above the 20% reserve target.

Top general fund revenue sources

FY25-26

Top general fund expense categories

FY25-26

Source: City of Dunsmuir adopted budget FY25-27, department totals as published. One-time items: Facilities includes $150k PW Shop construction; City Council includes $38k Measure D special election; Resilience Coordinator $175k is grant-funded (offset by matching revenue). The Sheriff contract alone is 23% of total GF expenses and grows faster than property tax revenue — a key driver of the structural deficit Measure D was designed to address.

Total net position $29.6M Jun 2024 audit
Cash & investments $4.06M incl. $605k LAIF
Pension liability $1.72M CalPERS net
Long-term debt $9.91M enterprise notes

Enterprise fund operating health

net revenue over expenses · annualized
Water
$30k
small surplus · reserve $679k
Sewer
$45k
deficit · reserve −$337k · Prop 218 needed
Solid waste
$80k
deficit · reserve −$628k · insolvent
Airport
$5k
near break-even · reserve −$13k
Civic mandate signals

Measure A passed Nov 2024 (TOT raised to 12%). Measure D passed Nov 2025 (raises sales tax to 8.25%, replacing the expiring 0.5% T&U with a new 1% T&U, generating ~$270k/yr). Two tax measures approved in 13 months — voters are saying they will fund their own revitalization.

02

Quality of life — for locals

The lived experience of 1,602 residents

Age distribution — cohort scarcity

2020 census
Cohort in balance Cohort to grow (18-24) Cohort strength (65+) Expected (small CA town)

The 18-24 cohort is the missing generation — 30% below expected. The 65+ cohort is well-represented and anchors property tax revenue, civic institutions, and the volunteer base. Median age 47.9 vs ~38 statewide.

K-8 enrollment trend

30% in 2 yrs

93 → 65 students. Investigate this.

SCHOOLS · K-12 EDUCATION

Where families weigh the daily reality

School quality is the binding constraint on family in-migration. A young family considering Dunsmuir reads the school data first — outcomes, class sizes, peer performance — and the answers determine whether the rest of the town's affordability and natural beauty matter to them. The data below profiles Dunsmuir Elementary (K-8) and Dunsmuir High (9-12) against California state averages and against neighboring schools in Siskiyou Union HSD.

K-12 schools — parent-priority view

organized by what parents actually research

National surveys (EdChoice, GreatSchools, Fordham) consistently identify these factors as the top considerations parents weigh when evaluating schools. Dunsmuir's two single-school districts are profiled below against California state averages. Honest read: Dunsmuir's schools struggle on traditional academic metrics relative to state averages, with small enrollments creating high statistical variance. Below-average outcomes here are part of why family in-migration is constrained.

Tier 1 · Academic outcomes
ELA proficiency
15% / 20%
Elem K-8 / High 9-12 · CA avg 43% / 57%
Math proficiency
15% / 13%
Elem / High · CA avg 33% / 31%
Science (HS only)
7%
High school · CA avg 34%
Academic outcomes vs. neighbors · ELA, Math, Science (% proficient)
English / Language Arts
Dunsmuir High
20%
Weed High
40%
Mt. Shasta High
44%
CA state avg
57%
Mathematics
Dunsmuir High
13%
Weed High
25%
Mt. Shasta High
26%
CA state avg
31%
Science
Dunsmuir High
7%
Weed High
20%
Mt. Shasta High
25%
CA state avg
34%

Comparing schools this small carries small-N caveats — single-year scores can vary substantially. The directional pattern across all three metrics is meaningful: Dunsmuir High trails its in-county peers in every academic outcome measured, and the gap grows in math and science.

Tier 2 · Safety & climate
Chronic absenteeism (HS)
20–43%
range 2022-25 · small-N · CA avg ~24%
Dropout rate (HS)
8–27%
range 2022-25 · small-N · CA avg ~9%
Statewide rank (HS)
Bottom 20%
SchoolDigger CA HS rankings
Tier 3 · Class sizes & investment
Student-teacher ratio
11.4:1 / 7.1:1
Elem / High · CA avg ~22:1
Per-pupil spending
$13.9k / $34.6k
Elem / High · high HS spend = small-N inflation
Free/reduced lunch
83% / 72%
Elem / High · CA avg ~61%
K incoming class
11 students
2024-25 pipeline

Strategic frame: School quality is a binding constraint on family in-migration. Current trajectory is a net negative for Initiative 2 (Balanced Age Demographic). This is why the school-quality investment lever in that initiative carries weight (0.18). Sources: California School Dashboard, SchoolDigger, US News Education, CA Dept of Ed DataQuest, Ed-Data partnership. Caveats: Small-school statistics carry high year-over-year variance; HS dropout and absenteeism shown as ranges to reflect this. Per-pupil spending high at HS partly reflects small denominator (61 students), not necessarily better resourcing.

JOBS · WORK & EMPLOYMENT

Where Dunsmuir works

Dunsmuir is structurally a bedroom community. Most working residents commute out of town for jobs — primarily to Mt. Shasta City — while only a minority work where they live. This shapes both the local economy (limited in-town payroll capture) and the demographic strategy (recruiting employers is one of Initiative 3's central levers). The data below answers three questions: where do Dunsmuir residents work, what jobs are actually available in town, and how do wages compare to the region.

Commute geography & in-town employment

Census ACS + LEHD OnTheMap · 2023
1.  Commute flow — who works where
~150
Live + work in Dunsmuir
~25% of resident workforce
~457
Live in Dunsmuir, commute out
~75% of resident workforce
~93
Commute in to Dunsmuir
work here, live elsewhere
Net flow: −364 · Dunsmuir sends 364 more workers out per day than it draws in. The single largest commute destination is Mercy Mt. Shasta hospital (9 miles north). 7.7% work fully from home — a relatively high share, suggesting remote work has gained traction. Average commute time is 19.7 minutes, shorter than the US average (26.4 min).
Mt. Shasta City (9 mi N)healthcare, retail, education, government — primary destination
Redding (50 mi S)secondary destination — Mercy Redding, Shasta College, regional offices
McCloud (15 mi E)Mt. Shasta Ski Park, McCloud River resorts (seasonal)
Yreka / Weed (35-40 mi N)county government, College of the Siskiyous
2.  Resident industries

Sectors where the 607 employed Dunsmuir residents work — most jobs are not in town:

Healthcare & social
105 / 17%
Retail trade
99 / 16%
Manufacturing
82 / 14%
Education
~58 / 10%
Construction / trades
~52 / 9%
Hospitality / food
~48 / 8%
Public administration
~32 / 5%
Other services
~131 / 21%
3.  Major in-town employers

Approximately 150-180 in-town jobs distributed across:

Public sector · ~45 FTE
City of Dunsmuir ~16 · Dunsmuir Elementary K-8 ~12 · Dunsmuir Joint Union HSD ~12 · Volunteer FD/EMS ~5
Retail & services · ~50 FTE-equiv
Dunsmuir Supermarket · Dollar General · Chevron / Manfredi's Valero · Yaks (downtown) · Dunsmuir Hardware · post office & library staff
Hospitality & food · ~60-80 jobs (seasonal)
Café Maddalena · Cornerstone · Tootsies · Dunsmuir Brewery Works · Cave Springs Resort · Railroad Park Resort · short-term rentals · ~6-8 other restaurants
Healthcare & railroad · ~25-35 FTE
Shasta Cascade Health Centers (Tue-Fri only) · Union Pacific maintenance crews · cannabis dispensary · misc trades and self-employed
4.  Wages — earnings & income comparison

Median household income across geographic levels:

Dunsmuirmedian household income
$58,000
Siskiyou Countymedian household income
$59,095
Californiamedian household income
$96,500
Per capita income (Dunsmuir, 2022)
$40,124middle income for CA · upper-middle for US

Dunsmuir's median earnings are within $1k of Siskiyou County's, but both lag California's $96.5k median by more than 38%. A key wage benchmark: the highest-paying industries in the county are Utilities ($86k), Finance ($80k), Public Administration ($74k), and Construction ($68k). Public-sector union jobs (e.g., City of Dunsmuir Public Works at $31.58–$37.37/hr with CalPERS) are among the highest-paying local roles. Most retail and hospitality jobs in town pay $15-22/hr, near or at minimum wage.

Strategic implication: The bedroom-community pattern is the structural reality Initiative 3 (Balanced Economy) tries to bend. Recruiting light manufacturing, craft production, and remote-work infrastructure brings jobs here rather than continuing to send the workforce out. The 7.7% remote-work share is also a meaningful base to grow — fiber broadband investment supports both demographic recruitment (Initiative 2) and economic diversification (Initiative 3) simultaneously.

Local services & community gaps

cluster view · what's in town, what's 9 mi away, what's missing
I-5 ↑ MT. SHASTA · 9 MI · ~12 MIN CRITICAL OUT-OF-TOWN SERVICES Mercy Hospital ER CVS Pharmacy Berryvale + Ray's Pediatrician OB/GYN Urgent care (Sat) ↓ REDDING · 50 MI · ~50 MIN Mercy Redding (large hospital, specialists) NORTH END I-5 EXIT 732 · FLORENCE LOOP Chevron Clinic Tue–Fri Yaks Dollar General FedEx DOWNTOWN CORE historic 1920s walkable district Library USPS Dunsmuir Supermarket small grocery + deli Pops Center Siskiyou Arts DINING Cornerstone Brewery Café Maddalena Tootsies + several more SOUTH END I-5 EXIT 729 · HEDGE CREEK FALLS TRAILHEAD Manfredi's / Valero gas + deli Jubilee Railroad Railroad Park LEGEND Healthcare Grocery / food Civic / shipping Dining Fuel

Missing in town

Pediatrician Nearest: Mt. Shasta · 9 mi · ~12m. No in-town option.
24/7 Urgent Care Mt. Shasta clinic Saturdays only. ER 9 mi.
OB/GYN Mt. Shasta · 9 mi. No in-town prenatal care.
Daycare center No licensed dedicated daycare. Limited home-based.
Full-service grocery Berryvale or Ray's · Mt. Shasta · 9 mi.
Full gym / fitness No in-town fitness center.

Three clusters along I-5: North End (Florence Loop, Exit 732) is gas + Yaks + small retail; Downtown Core has all civic + dining + the small grocery; South End (Exit 729) is gas + Railroad Park. Critical healthcare and full grocery are 9 mi north in Mt. Shasta City. Specialty medical and the large hospital are 50 mi south in Redding.

Local services — drive time to access

detail view · sortable times
Available locally or nearby Unknown / data gap Missing / community void

Drive time as the access metric. Bars over 60 min show as "1h Xm". Missing services are common features in towns of this size that Dunsmuir lacks — shown as empty bars to make the gap visible.

Climate & natural hazard exposure

30-yr horizon
Wildfire risk 99% of properties
Severe flood risk 40% of properties
Heat risk 142% 95°F+ days · by 2055

Quality of life assets · strategic view

who uses them, when, what type
SPECIAL OCCASION
DAILY USE
LOCALS
VISITORS
Local · special
Visitor · special
Local · daily
Visitor · daily ★ STRATEGIC GOLD
City Park
Caboose Park
Zero traffic lights
Low cost of living
Walkable downtown
"Best Water on Earth"
Upper Sacramento River
Hedge Creek Falls
Pops Performing Arts
Siskiyou Arts Museum
Botanical Gardens
Mossbrae (closed)
Nature Heritage & Culture Civic Lifestyle

🌲 Nature

Upper Sacramento River Premier wild trout fishery; runs through downtown
Hedge Creek Falls Sole I-5-adjacent attraction; trail at Exit 729
Mossbrae Falls trail Currently closed; reopening = major lever
Botanical Gardens Volunteer-run; seasonal peak summer

🎭 Heritage & culture

Historic 1920s downtown Intact architectural fabric; rare in NorCal
Pops Performing Arts Year-round community venue
Siskiyou Arts Museum Regional draw for arts tourism
Railroad heritage Active UP freight + Amtrak Coast Starlight

🏛️ Civic & public

City Park & ballfield Daily-use community gathering space
Caboose Park Family-friendly · rail-themed
City + county library Combined collection · rare for town this size
Volunteer FD & EMS Strong base · key civic capacity asset

☕ Lifestyle

"Best Water on Earth" Untreated Mt. Shasta snowmelt · rare brand asset
Walkable downtown Sub-15-min walk anywhere
Zero traffic lights Quintessential small-town feel
Low cost of living ~95% of US average
03

Economy — three streams

Highway pass-through, overnight tourism, other industries
Stream A
Highway pass-through
I-5 traffic, fuel & quick stops
I-5 AADT ~20,000 vehicles/day
Annual pass-throughs ~7.3M vehicles/yr
Dunsmuir I-5 exits 5 729-734
City sales tax $192k FY24, incl. fuel

Trucks dominate I-5 traffic in this corridor (it's the primary CA goods-movement route). Pass-through capture happens at gas, food, restrooms, and quick attractions. Hedge Creek Falls is the one I-5-adjacent attraction — trail starts at Exit 729. Mossbrae Falls trail closed. Capture rate per pass-through is roughly 3¢ in city sales tax.

Stream B
Overnight tourism
Visitors who book a room or campsite
Overnight visitors/yr 69,400 Placer.ai
Spending potential $13–15M Kosmont est.
Implied lodging ~$3.24M FY23-24 actual
TOT collected $389k FY23-24 actual
VISITOR SPENDING CAPTURE — ALL CATEGORIES
~38%
~62% spent in broader region (Mt. Shasta City, I-5 stops, Ski Park)
Captured locally: ~$13–15M Addressable upside: ~$5–10M

Math: $135k Bradley-Burns sales tax ÷ 1% = $13.5M total taxable sales · $90k T&U tax ÷ 0.5% = $18M (split: ~$15M total) · subtract $3–5M resident share = ~$10–12M visitor + non-resident · plus $2.8M lodging ($389k TOT ÷ 14% combined rate) = $13–15M visitor capture. Compared to Kosmont 2024's $36M regional pool estimate (69,400 visitors × $200/day × 2.6 days). Most of the unreachable 62% is structural — visitors will keep gassing up on I-5, eating in Mt. Shasta where the restaurants are, skiing at the Ski Park.

Visitor profile

TOT collected (annual)

TOT is the city's #2 General Fund revenue source after property tax. Combined effective rate 14% (12% city + 2% county). Two-day stays are the modal pattern — converting these to 3+ day stays is the single biggest economic lever Dunsmuir has.

Stream B continued · nearby attraction inventory

distance · drive · sentiment · visitation
Distance (mi) Drive time (min) Sentiment (%) Visitors/yr (k)

Reading: Visitation in thousands/yr (700 = 700,000). Sentiment converts review aggregates to 0–100 scale. Asterisks (*) mark estimates — National parks, state parks have official counts (solid). Hedge Creek, Botanical Gardens, Mossbrae trail, Castle Lake, Lake Shastina visitor counts are estimates only.

What the chart implies

Crater Lake (700k) and Lassen (400k) are huge but far — they're itinerary anchors, and Dunsmuir's job is to be the comfortable overnight stop on the way. Burney Falls (250k, 96% sentiment) and Mt. Shasta City (250k, 92%) are the close-in big draws. Castle Crags is criminally underutilized given proximity — 6 miles, 92% sentiment, only 75k visitors. Local Dunsmuir attractions score very well on sentiment but visitation is unmeasured — installing trail counters at Hedge Creek and Mossbrae would be the cheapest, highest-value diagnostic Dunsmuir can do.

Stream C
Other industries
Composition of the local economy beyond tourism & pass-through
Active sectors
Retail voids · what's missing

Left: existing economic composition by approximate share of local jobs + payroll. Right: retail voids identified by Kosmont 2024, sized by estimated demand if filled. The gap between left and right is the diversification opportunity Initiative 3 (Balanced Economy) targets.

Marquee revitalization properties

Travelers Hotel Dunsmuir Hotel California Theater Former bank
04

SWOT analysis

Strategic position synthesis
Strengths
  • Extraordinary natural assets — water, river, falls, Castle Crags, PCT
  • I-5 exposure (~7.3M pass-throughs/yr) + Amtrak Coast Starlight
  • 69k overnight visitors/yr already showing up (45% are $90k+ HHI)
  • $30M+ secured in infrastructure last 5 yrs; $18M more in flight
  • Strong civic mandate — 2 tax measures passed in 13 months
  • Historic 1920s downtown with intact architectural fabric
  • Dense attraction radius — 5 major draws within 25 miles
  • Untreated Mt. Shasta snowmelt water — globally rare brand asset
Weaknesses
  • Population 1,602 and shrinking ~1.2%/yr; aged median 47.9
  • K-8 enrollment down ~30% in 2 yrs (93 → 65)
  • Visitor capture concentrated in lodging; downtown retail thin — addressable upside ~$5–10M/yr
  • Net 364 workers commute out daily — bedroom community
  • 83% of K-8 students free/reduced lunch eligible
  • City staff = ~15 FTE; one City Manager wears 7+ hats
  • Solid Waste enterprise insolvent (−$628k); Sewer/Airport below reserve
  • Median HHI 58% of CA; thin local consumer demand
  • Mossbrae Falls trail closed — flagship asset offline
Opportunities
  • Convert 1-2 day visitors → 3+ day stays via downtown experience
  • Affordable housing arbitrage (~31% of CA median) for remote workers
  • Reactivate Travelers Hotel, Cal Theater, Dunsmuir Hotel as anchors
  • "California's City of Waterfalls" branding (city-led, in budget)
  • Mossbrae Falls trail restoration — flagship asset back online
  • PCT thru-hiker services — captive, predictable seasonal demand
  • Mott Airport reactivation w/ FAA-funded taxiway/apron
  • Highway-stop conversion: Hedge Creek already at exit, leverage further
  • Meeting/event venue gap — high-margin midweek occupancy lever
Threats
  • 99% of properties at wildfire risk over 30 yrs
  • 40% at severe flood risk; rising 95°F+ days +142%
  • CA wildfire insurance crisis — premiums up, carriers exiting
  • GF reserve fragile — adopted budget projects it falling below target by FY26-27, though Measure D mitigates this
  • $1.72M unfunded pension liability (sensitive to discount rate)
  • $9.91M long-term enterprise debt — locked in through 2063
  • Compounding population decline = shrinking tax base
  • Single-City-Manager execution risk on $18M pipeline
  • School enrollment cliff threatens elementary district viability
Strategic frame

Three economic streams, three different playbooks. Highway pass-through is a volume game — millions of vehicles, a few cents each. Overnight tourism is a yield game — 69k visitors at high HHI, ~35–40% spending capture rate, addressable upside of $5–10M/yr from longer stays and downtown retail activation. Other industries are a base-load game — government, healthcare commute, retiree income, and the lifestyle-migration thesis for remote workers. The fastest fiscal payoff comes from overnight tourism (TOT is GF revenue #2). The most durable demographic fix comes from importing remote workers and young families. Pass-through is the "free option" — already happening, just needs better conversion at the I-5 exits.

Strategy scorecard

Four initiatives the city could undertake. Each one is a portfolio of inputs that together produce an initiative intensity score (0-100). That intensity drives downstream lead and lag indicators, ultimately producing a letter grade on the strategic outcome each initiative is meant to achieve. Adjust the sliders at the bottom and watch grades shift at the top.

Coefficients are illustrative — drawn from Kosmont 2024 directional logic and tourism economics. Use this as a thinking tool, not a forecast.
INITIATIVE 1
Visitor Capture
INITIATIVE 2
Balanced Age Demographic
INITIATIVE 3
Balanced Economy
INITIATIVE 4
Civic Capacity
Tier 4 Desired result · letter grade does the initiative do what it says
D+
Downtown sales / sq mi
NOW: ~$13–15M captured
~38% capture · 1.7 day avg stay
score 48
D
18-44 cohort share
NOW: ~30%
K-8 enrollment ↓30% · declining trajectory
score 42
D+
Economic resilience
NOW: HHI 0.38
heavily concentrated · 8 retail voids
score 47
B
Civic resilience
NOW: 2.8 yrs pipeline
strong volunteer base · sustain & succession
score 75
propagated from
Tier 3 Lag indicators second-order effects
3+ day stay rate
31%
baseline 31%
↑ +0pp
K-8 enrollment trend
−6.0%/yr
baseline −6%/yr
↑ +0pp
Sector concentration (HHI)
0.38
baseline 0.38 (concentrated)
↑ +0%
Leadership pipeline depth
2.8
baseline 2.8 yrs cushion
↑ +0%
propagated from
Tier 2 Lead indicators first-order effects
Downtown foot traffic
100
indexed at 100
↑ +0%
Net new families/yr
−4
baseline −4/yr
↑ +0
New businesses/yr
4
baseline 4/yr
↑ +0
Active volunteer engagement
100
indexed at 100
↑ +0%
propagated from
Initiative intensity 0
aggregate of 5 inputs below
Initiative intensity 0
aggregate of 5 inputs below
Initiative intensity 0
aggregate of 5 inputs below
Initiative intensity 0
aggregate of 5 inputs below
aggregated from input portfolio
CHAIN 1 Visitor Capture inputs
5 levers · sliders 0–100
Code enforcement intensity 20
Façade grant funding 15
Marquee property investment 10
Downtown WiFi & wayfinding 30
Event programming budget 40
CHAIN 2 Balanced Age Demographic inputs
5 levers · sliders 0–100
Licensed childcare slots 10
Fiber optic broadband coverage 40
Family housing supply 25
School-quality investment 50
Youth amenities & programs 30
CHAIN 3 Balanced Economy inputs
5 levers · sliders 0–100
Small biz incentives 25
Permit speed (lower = faster) 50
Industry diversification programs 15
Training partnerships (CoS, COE) 20
Light mfg / craft recruitment 10
CHAIN 4 Civic Capacity inputs
5 levers · sliders 0–100
Knowledge-transfer programs 50
Volunteer recruitment & retention 75
Org succession planning 50
Disaster prep & recovery readiness 80
Community trust building 70
Baseline · all sliders at default